Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension sparked by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
